As the 2012 election winds down to its
conclusion, it appears that where we end may be close to where we started. With
little exception, the races which were targeted in January are the races that
are likely to be watched closely as the votes are counted.
As many had predicted entering this election,
the Democrats appeared poised to trim the Republican 64-vote House majority.
What is not as clear is whether the Democratic caucus can pull off taking back
the House. As the races are shaping up it looks like the Democrats could pick
up 4-5 seats on Election Day, not enough to secure control.
Perhaps the most surprising race in the final
days is that of Speaker Jase Bolger. Running for his 3rd, and final term in the
House, in a district with a 57% Republican base, the leader is in fight for his
political life. Recent polls and political activity from both camps reflect a
race that is coming right down to the wire; much closer than it should be. Both candidates are spending heavily in the
final week on network media. Reports indicate that the House Republicans have
put close to $250,000 into the final media buy, with Democratic interests
reporting equal spending in the last seven days of the campaign. It is expected
that collectively both parties will have spent close to $1 million dollars in
this race.
As the campaign concludes below are
additional seats to watch on election night:
*District
103…Republican
Rep. Bruce Rendon from Lake City has his hands full in fending off Democratic
challenger Lon Johnson of Kalkaska County. Mr. Johnson is politically wired to
National Democrats (his wife is serving as Deputy Director of the Obama
campaign), which has given him access to national fundraising and endorsements.
This district has a marginally Republican base, which both sides concede; Mr.
Johnson has worked with a fury. Both Democratic and Republican caucuses have
poured late money, and ground troops into the race in hopes of pulling off a
close victory.
*District
67…This
southern Ingham County district has been Democratic territory for over 20
years. With the retirement of Democratic Rep. Barb Byrum and some subtle
changes through reapportionment, the Republicans view this seat as a clear
opportunity for change. Democrats are fielding retired Lansing Fire Chief Tom
Cochran while Republicans are backing Jeff Oesterle a farmer and Township
official. Both sides have spent heavily and it is expected that this race could
come down to the wire.
*District
71…Another
mid-Michigan district is under intense fire with Republican Rep. Deb
Shaughnessy trying to fend off Eaton County Commissioner Theresa Abed. This
district which includes all of Eaton County has been a target by Democrats for
years. Changing demographics have played a role in making this district a jump
ball as it moves from a rural base to more of a suburb of Lansing. This
district also has a high percentage of State workers, which gives Democrats
hope that his may be the year for a political shift, given some of the tough votes
Rep. Shaughnessy has taken on public employee benefits.
*District
84…This
district which sets in the heart of the thumb area has seen its share of political
battles over the last two years. In 2010, Democrat Rep. Terry Brown was
defeated by 200 votes by Republican Kurt Damrow, who then lost this year’s
primary to Dan Grimshaw a County Register of Deeds. Democrats have high hopes
that Mr. Brown can regain this seat on Tuesday. Both parties concede that this
may be the best chance for Democrats to pick up a Republican seat.
*District
52…Republican
Rep. Mark Ouimet was elected to this suburban Ann Arbor district assisted by
Governor Snyder’s victory margin in 2010. The district with its slight G.O.P.
leanings has seen an all-out campaign by Democrat Saline Mayor Gretchen
Driskell. This is a heavy weight battle between sophisticated candidates. Both
Candidates have raised big numbers and both have sufficient funds on hand to
keep the campaigns at full throttle through the weekend.
*District
91…This
west coast district has gone back and forth over the last 20 years between
Republicans and Democrats. This year is no different as Republican Rep. Holly
Hughes is locked in a tough re-election bid with Colleen LaMonte a former
teacher. Hughes tough votes in favor of education reform have made her a big
target for the unions. The district which surrounds the Muskegon area has a
slight Republican base, but history would tell you the voters of the area are
willing to jump ship if a better candidate comes along.
*District
76…This
50/50 leaning district in Grand Rapids was the recipient of Rep. Roy Schmidt’s
fumbled party switch to the G.O.P. on filing day in May. The resulting
controversy has put Rep. Schmidt’s re-election chances in the tank with
Democratic candidate Winnie Brinks expected to win easily on Tuesday.
*District
101…This
district that runs from Northport down the coast to Manistee elected Republican
Rep. Ray Franz in the 2010 Republican wave. The district, which has been trending
Democratic over the last three elections, has forced Rep. Franz into a
full-fledged fight. Democrats are backing Allen O’Shea a County Commissioner.
Both parties have moved resources into the race which is expected to be close.
*Districts 108, 109 and 110…The upper peninsula
has seen multiple shoot-outs as Republican Rep’s Matt Huuki (District 110) and
Ed McBroom (108), both first termers are working hard to hold on to what was
once democratic territory. Additionally, the open 109 District, which has been
democractic for the balance of the last century, appears to be tightening with
Democrat John Kivela facing Republican Jack Hubbard. Most believe that Mitt
Romney will run strong thoughout the U.P. which may bode well for Republicans.