Congressional Retirements – Cascade Effect and Prognostication – Part 2

Four retirements from Michigan’s Congressional delegation have set off a chain reaction of potential candidate shuffling reaching deep into the State Legislature and, further, into local government. The shake-up in Lansing, as a result of term limits, already promised to be considerable as a result of the 2014 elections and the roughly 36 members of the State Legislature who are unable to run for their current post (seven in the State Senate, 29 in the State House). Now, with U.S. Senator Carl Levin (D-Detroit) and U.S. Representatives Dave Camp (R-Midland), John Dingell (D-Detroit), and Mike Rogers (R-Brighton) all announcing their pending departure from public office, the 2014 election will likely be remembered for years to come.

Although the filing deadline is still a couple of weeks out, the buzz throughout the state is heavy with “who is running for what?” Last week, PAAdvisory began an examination of each announcement and the resulting cascade effect, starting with the departure of U.S. Senator Carl Levin and U.S. Congressman John Dingell. This week, we continue the analysis by looking at the retirements of U.S. Representatives Camp and Rogers.

Camp

U.S. Representative Dave Camp (R-Midland) announced last week that he would be retiring from Congress at the end of the year. Congressman Camp had been diagnosed with non-Hodgkins large B-cell lymphoma in July 2012, but has been cancer-free since December of that year. As Chair of the Ways and Means Committee, Representative Camp spent much of his energy on a rewrite of the federal tax code, an effort that has so far yielded no results. After he unveiled the proposal earlier this year it was ignored by many Republicans in Congress, though he has vowed to continue his pursuit. Congressman Camp was first elected to the U.S. House in 1990 and served 12 terms.

The immediate and obvious candidate to replace Mr. Camp in the 4^th Congressional District is State Senator John Moolenaar (R-Midland), who has already announced his intention to run. More recently, Paul Mitchell, a key Republican financier and former CEO and chair of Ross Education, announced he would also seek the GOP nomination. Mr. Mitchell is from Thomas Township in Saginaw County and, in addition to Senator Moolenaar, joins Peter Konetchy of Roscommon as announced candidates.

Wednesday, State Senator Darwin Booher (R-Evart) announced he would not be running for Congress following some consideration. State Senator Judy Emmons (R-Sheridan) is said to still be considering a potential candidacy. Another name mentioned, State Representative Kevin Cotter (R-Mt. Pleasant) stated he will not being running for Congress.

Senator Moolenaar’s certain candidacy has triggered the aforementioned “cascade” effect, as State House Majority Floor Leader Representative Jim Stamas (R-Midland) has announced his candidacy to replace Senator Moolenaar in the Senate. Many expect State Representative Peter Pettalia (R-Presque Isle) to also enter the race for the soon to be vacated Senate seat.

Representative Stamas is termed-out of the House of Representatives; however, Representative Pettalia has one term remaining as the Representative from the 106^th House District – a seat which was held by Democrats from 1999 – 2010 and would immediately be a top targeted seat by each party if vacated by Pettalia for a Senate bid.

On the Democratic side, there is no shortage of potential top-tier candidates from the district. Recall in 2002 when then-Senator Tony Stamas (R-Midland) won the seat over Democratic Party nominee Andy Neumann, it was one of if not the closest Senate race that year. Likewise, a close election was expected when the seat was open again in 2010 as former State Representative Joel Sheltrown (D-West Branch) was poised to run however, the race never materialized. Certainly Sheltrown, either of his brothers (Van and former Representative Dale), Neumann, and former Representative Matt Gilliard are names to watch.

Rogers

U.S. Representative Mike Roger’s (R-Brighton) announcement a couple of weeks ago that he will not seek re-election to Congress this year came as a true surprise to most. Congressman Rogers was first elected to the U.S. House in 2001 and currently holds one of the Chamber’s most important positions as Chair of the House Intelligence Committee.

Congressman Rogers will become the host of a talk radio show focused on national security. Many see the move as one to improve his name recognition among a broadened, national audience.

The 8^th Congressional District includes all of Ingham and Livingston counties and a portion of northern Oakland County. Although the seat certainly contains a solid Republican base in numbers, the quantity of high profile office holders on both sides of the aisle will likely bring a significant amount of attention to both the Primary and General elections for the seat.

Immediate attention turned to current State Senator Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Township) who represents a huge portion of the Congressional District, is hugely popular among conservative circles, and has a nice war chest of campaign funds. Senator Hune, however, announced Thursday that he will be running for re-election to his current State Senate seat.

The name that surprised some, but has since picked up considerable momentum, including the huge endorsement of Congressman Rogers, is former State Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop of Rochester Hills. Mr. Roger’s endorsement is certainly enough to keep some out of the race.

Not State Representative Tom McMillin (R-Rochester Hills) however. Previously an announced candidate in the 6-way GOP Primary race for the State Senate seat being vacated by term-limited Senator John Pappageorge (R-Troy), Representative McMillin announced his intention to run for Congress; then not long after Senator Hune’s announcement, he said he would stay in the State Senate race.

Former Michigan Republican Chair Saul Anuzis announced over the weekend that he would not be running for the seat.

Congressman Roger’s brother, current State Representative Bill Rogers (R-Brighton) is another name mentioned as a potential candidate; however, most saw Representative Rogers as the likely front-runner to replace Senator Hune in the State Senate should he have decided to make a run for Congress. Fair to say, Congressman Roger’s endorsement of Mr. Bishop is a clear sign that Representative Rogers is not running for his brother’s seat in Congress.

Representative McMillin’s decision to leave the crowded GOP Primary for the State Senate will certainly have its effects on the race as well, arguably leaving former State Representatives Chuck Moss, Marty Knollenberg, and Andrew “Rocky” Raszkowski as the frontrunners.

On the Democratic side of the race, there are certainly no shortage of potential candidates – most from the Ingham County portion of the District; however, thus far the search continues. Lansing Mayor and former Democratic Gubernatorial nominee Virg Bernero, current State Representative Sam Singh (D-East Lansing), current State Senator Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing), former State Representative Joan Bauer (D-Lansing), and Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum have all announced they will not be running.

Watch the election/campaign article featured in each week’s edition of PAAdvisory for ongoing updates.

posted by PAA Online , Friday, April 11, 2014 11:01 AM
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House Unveils Road Funding Plan

House Republicans outlined a new proposal to reallocate a portion of revenue garnered from fuel taxes and use taxes to generate up to $500 million per year for road funding by 2018. The plan calls for dedicating the portion of the fuel sales tax revenue that would normally go to the General Fund to road funding, as well 1/6 of use tax revenue. The other proposals include replacing the per-gallon tax charge on fuel with a 6 percent wholesale tax, which would garner an extra $47 million from diesel sales.

The plan will provide $450 million initially in 2015, which is expected to increase by 2018. $133 million of the proposed $450 million will stem from what has been trimmed from the Governor’s budget proposal by the House. The plan will also require all road projects costing more than $5 million to have a minimum five-year warranty, as well as require appropriate warranties for all other road projects. It also provides for the allocation of late payment fees for licensing and regulation to road funding, simplifying the vehicle registration code, applying newly purchased vehicle value immediately upon the transfer of plates, and increasing the overweight and oversized permit fees. Speaker Bolger (R-Marshall) also indicated that the plan will also try to begin to use new contracting methods such as performance-based maintenance contracting.

Governor Snyder has called for at least $1.2 billion in road funding per year, as have numerous recent studies. Some organizations and legislators believe that the plan is inadequate, but others such as Representative Wayne Schmidt (R-Traverse City), Chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and House Minority Leader Representative Tim Greimel (D-Auburn Hills) claim it is a good starting point. Speaker Bolger stated that he hopes to have a solution before summer recess.

posted by PAA Online , 11:01 AM
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General Obligation Bondholders Settle In Detroit Bankruptcy

Three large holders of general obligation bonds reached an agreement with the City of Detroit. Emergency Manager Kevyn Orr said the development could provide major assistance in assuring some lower income city pensioners do not fall into poverty. The settlement would pay the bondholders, who together own $388 million in general obligation bonds, 74 cents on the dollar, for a total of $287.5 million. The payment is much higher than the 20 cents on the dollar proposal laid out by Kevyn Orr at the beginning of the year.

Bondholders will still see most of their investment recouped thanks to bond insurance. The parties had been in closed-door mediation since October, and mediators hope that this agreement will encourage other debt holders to settle as well. Several weeks from now city pensioners will consider a proposal by Mr. Orr that would cut non-law enforcement pensions by 24% if a ‘Grand Bargain’ can be reached between the state, foundations, and the Detroit Institute of Arts. If pensioners do not agree with the proposal, the cut will amount to 34% if approved.

Of the $100 million the city will save due to the settlement, $37 million will go toward making back payments on bonds. $57 million will be used to ensure that pension payments are at least 133% of the federal poverty levels for individuals, a bit more than $15,000 per year, with the remainder going toward city pension funds.

posted by PAA Online , 11:00 AM
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Election Update

Representative John Olumba (I-Detroit) announced that he will run as a Democrat in the race for the 2^nd Senate seat. Representative Olumba left the House Democratic Caucus to operate as an independent, but did not want to lose on account of straight Democratic ticket voters. Senator Bert Johnson (D-Detroit) is running for Congress, making it likely that Representative Olumba will not face an incumbent in the race. Olumba said if the Democratic leader in the Senate is someone who won’t “micromanage” him and allows him to work with Republicans, he wouldn’t feel the need to leave the caucus in the other chamber.

Derek Miller, Macomb County Assistant Prosecutor, has filed to run for the 28^th Michigan House District with the endorsement of Representative Jon Switalski (D-Warren), who cannot seek reelection due to term limits. He also has the endorsement of Macomb County Prosecutor Eric Smith.

Also in Macomb County, Mark Hackel will run for re-election for County Executive and has indicated he is open to running for Governor in the future. He was first elected in November 2010, and was county sheriff for almost a decade. He is known for being attractive to both moderate Republicans and independents.

posted by PAA Online , 10:59 AM
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April 4th Survey Results

Three candidates remain in the race for the U.S. Congress seat being vacated by U.S. Representative Gary’s Peters departure for his U.S. Senate bid. Who do you believe will win?

67 percent of respondents believe State Representative Rudy Hobbs will be the newest U.S. Congressman and 25 percent see Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence in the position. 8 percent picked State Senator Bert Johnson.

posted by PAA Online , 10:58 AM
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PAAdvisory Briefs

Financial Emergency Declared In Lincoln Park

A recently appointed financial review team has declared a financial emergency in Lincoln Park. Governor Snyder will now have 10 days to affirm their declaration. The city’s General Fund balance was a negative $89,803 as of June 30, 2013, and the best case scenario is a deficit of a negative $1 million by June 30, 2014.

posted by PAA Online , 10:58 AM
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Question of the Week 4/11/14

posted by PAA Online , 10:40 AM
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