Election 2012 The Final Chapter

As the 2012 election winds down to its conclusion, it appears that where we end may be close to where we started. With little exception, the races which were targeted in January are the races that are likely to be watched closely as the votes are counted.

As many had predicted entering this election, the Democrats appeared poised to trim the Republican 64-vote House majority. What is not as clear is whether the Democratic caucus can pull off taking back the House. As the races are shaping up it looks like the Democrats could pick up 4-5 seats on Election Day, not enough to secure control.

Perhaps the most surprising race in the final days is that of Speaker Jase Bolger. Running for his 3rd, and final term in the House, in a district with a 57% Republican base, the leader is in fight for his political life. Recent polls and political activity from both camps reflect a race that is coming right down to the wire; much closer than it should be. Both candidates are spending heavily in the final week on network media. Reports indicate that the House Republicans have put close to $250,000 into the final media buy, with Democratic interests reporting equal spending in the last seven days of the campaign. It is expected that collectively both parties will have spent close to $1 million dollars in this race.

As the campaign concludes below are additional seats to watch on election night:

*District 103…Republican Rep. Bruce Rendon from Lake City has his hands full in fending off Democratic challenger Lon Johnson of Kalkaska County. Mr. Johnson is politically wired to National Democrats (his wife is serving as Deputy Director of the Obama campaign), which has given him access to national fundraising and endorsements. This district has a marginally Republican base, which both sides concede; Mr. Johnson has worked with a fury. Both Democratic and Republican caucuses have poured late money, and ground troops into the race in hopes of pulling off a close victory.

*District 67…This southern Ingham County district has been Democratic territory for over 20 years. With the retirement of Democratic Rep. Barb Byrum and some subtle changes through reapportionment, the Republicans view this seat as a clear opportunity for change. Democrats are fielding retired Lansing Fire Chief Tom Cochran while Republicans are backing Jeff Oesterle a farmer and Township official. Both sides have spent heavily and it is expected that this race could come down to the wire.

*District 71…Another mid-Michigan district is under intense fire with Republican Rep. Deb Shaughnessy trying to fend off Eaton County Commissioner Theresa Abed. This district which includes all of Eaton County has been a target by Democrats for years. Changing demographics have played a role in making this district a jump ball as it moves from a rural base to more of a suburb of Lansing. This district also has a high percentage of State workers, which gives Democrats hope that his may be the year for a political shift, given some of the tough votes Rep. Shaughnessy has taken on public employee benefits.

*District 84…This district which sets in the heart of the thumb area has seen its share of political battles over the last two years. In 2010, Democrat Rep. Terry Brown was defeated by 200 votes by Republican Kurt Damrow, who then lost this year’s primary to Dan Grimshaw a County Register of Deeds. Democrats have high hopes that Mr. Brown can regain this seat on Tuesday. Both parties concede that this may be the best chance for Democrats to pick up a Republican seat.

*District 52…Republican Rep. Mark Ouimet was elected to this suburban Ann Arbor district assisted by Governor Snyder’s victory margin in 2010. The district with its slight G.O.P. leanings has seen an all-out campaign by Democrat Saline Mayor Gretchen Driskell. This is a heavy weight battle between sophisticated candidates. Both Candidates have raised big numbers and both have sufficient funds on hand to keep the campaigns at full throttle through the weekend.

*District 91…This west coast district has gone back and forth over the last 20 years between Republicans and Democrats. This year is no different as Republican Rep. Holly Hughes is locked in a tough re-election bid with Colleen LaMonte a former teacher. Hughes tough votes in favor of education reform have made her a big target for the unions. The district which surrounds the Muskegon area has a slight Republican base, but history would tell you the voters of the area are willing to jump ship if a better candidate comes along.

*District 76…This 50/50 leaning district in Grand Rapids was the recipient of Rep. Roy Schmidt’s fumbled party switch to the G.O.P. on filing day in May. The resulting controversy has put Rep. Schmidt’s re-election chances in the tank with Democratic candidate Winnie Brinks expected to win easily on Tuesday.

*District 101…This district that runs from Northport down the coast to Manistee elected Republican Rep. Ray Franz in the 2010 Republican wave. The district, which has been trending Democratic over the last three elections, has forced Rep. Franz into a full-fledged fight. Democrats are backing Allen O’Shea a County Commissioner. Both parties have moved resources into the race which is expected to be close.

*Districts 108, 109 and 110…The upper peninsula has seen multiple shoot-outs as Republican Rep’s Matt Huuki (District 110) and Ed McBroom (108), both first termers are working hard to hold on to what was once democratic territory. Additionally, the open 109 District, which has been democractic for the balance of the last century, appears to be tightening with Democrat John Kivela facing Republican Jack Hubbard. Most believe that Mitt Romney will run strong thoughout the U.P. which may bode well for Republicans.

posted by PAA Online , Friday, November 2, 2012 11:06 AM
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1st Congressional Leading Spending

$9.3 million has been spent on the 1^st Congressional race between incumbent Congressman Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls) and Democratic challenger Gary McDowell according to the number released by the Michigan Campaign Finance Network. Most notable, only about $3.3 million of that total was raised and spent by the campaigns themselves; meaning, more than $6 million came from outside groups.

Leading the way were the League of Conservation Voters (for Mr. McDowell) and both party’s campaign committees.

In the 3^rd District race between incumbent U.S. Representative Justin Amash (R-Grand Rapids) and Democratic challenger Steve Pestka, the fundraising numbers are close with the challenger holding a slight lead at $1.471 million to Congressman Amash’s $1.221 million. Through October 17^th, though, Congressman Amash held an almost 5-1 advantage in cash-on-hand heading into the last weeks of the campaign.

In the other arguably competitive U.S. House of Representatives campaign, the open 11^th District seat, the race between two little-known political newcomers Republican Kerry Bentivolio and Democrat Syed Taj, the fundraising advantage goes to Mr. Syed with a little over $625,000 raised to Mr. Bentivolio’s $430,000.

posted by PAA Online , 11:05 AM
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Proposal 3 Gets Presidential Lift

Michigan ballot proposal 3, the ballot initiative to amend the State Constitution to require 25 percent of all energy consumption in the state to come from renewable sources by 2025, got a big endorsement this week. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton called the proposal the state’s best opportunity to kick-start the economy.

Proponents of the measure, Michigan Energy Michigan Jobs, claim the proposal will result in 94,000 new jobs in the state and were obviously excited to announce the President’s endorsement.

The recent endorsement may be much-needed as recent polls show the proposal with very low levels of support. EPIC/MRA, in a poll conducted of 600 likely voters for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ showed 55 percent opposing the proposal with only 35 percent in support.

posted by PAA Online , 11:04 AM
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Polls Give Stabenow Sizeable Lead

While many polls have many races, including the Presidential race, tightening in Michigan, one race that appears not to be getting any closer is the race for the United States Senate.

Incumbent U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) is leading GOP challenger and former Congressman Peter Hoekstra in polls conducted by EPIC/MRA and the Glengariff Group, published in the Detroit Free Press and the Detroit News, respectively.

The Glengariff poll of 600 likely voters had Senator Stabenow up 52.4 percent to Mr. Hoekstra’s 37.4 percent, with a 4 percent margin of error. The EPIC/MRA poll, also of 600 likely voters, gave Senator Stabenow 54 percent to Mr. Hoekstra’s 33 percent, again with a 4 percent margin of error.

Senator Stabenow also has a significant fundraising advantage, having raised more than $13.6 million since her last campaign.

posted by PAA Online , 11:03 AM
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Last Week's Survey Results

The question in last week’s PAAdvisory asked how readers plan to vote on Proposal 6 regarding any future bridge or tunnel between Michigan and Canada.

93% of respondents indicated they would be voting “no,” while only 3% responded with intentions of voting “yes.”

posted by PAA Online , 11:02 AM
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PAAdvisory Briefs

PAA Election Tracker

As you tune into national and local television coverage this coming Tuesday for election results, make sure to also check in with PAA’s Election Tracker on our website at www.paaonline.com.

Meningitis Death Toll Rises to Seven

The U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) announced three more meningitis deaths, two of which occurred in Michigan, bringing the total to 28 deaths caused by the contaminated steroids. Only Tennessee’s eleven deaths is a higher single-state total than Michigan’s. The latest two are a 64-year-old Wayne County woman and an 81-year-old Charlevoix County woman.

Schwartz Endorses Pestka

Former U.S. Congressman Joe Schwartz, the well-known Battle Creek Republican, has endorsed the campaign of Democrat Steve Pestka for the 3^rd U.S. Congressional District seat. Mr. Pestka, the former State Representative and current Judge, is challenging incumbent U.S. Congressman Justin Amash (R-Grand Rapids).

posted by PAA Online , 11:01 AM
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Question of the Week 11-2-2012

posted by PAA Online , 10:41 AM
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